Fast decisions reflect biases; slow decisions do not

Decisions are often made by heterogeneous groups of individuals, each with distinct initial biases and access to information of different quality. We show that in groups of independent agents who accumulate evidence the first to decide are those with the strongest initial biases. Their decisions align with their initial bias, regardless of the underlying truth. In contrast, agents who decide last make decisions as if they were initially unbiased and hence make better choices. We obtain asymptotic expressions in the large population limit quantifying how agents' initial inclinations shape early decisions. Our analysis shows how bias, information quality, and decision order interact in nontrivial ways to determine the reliability of decisions in a group.

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Institutions

Publication Details

Journal
Physical review. E
Published
2024-08-12
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1103/physreve.110.024305
Citations
6
Primary Topic
Opinion Dynamics and Social Influence
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
1.69

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article

Fast decisions reflect biases; slow decisions do not

Sean D. Lawley, Krešimir Josić́, Samantha Linn, Zachary P. Kilpatrick et al.
6 citations
Physical review. E
Opinion Dynamics and Social Influence
1.69
article

Fast decisions reflect biases; slow decisions do not

Sean D. Lawley, Krešimir Josić́, Samantha Linn, Zachary P. Kilpatrick, Bhargav R. Karamched
article en
6 citations

Abstract

Decisions are often made by heterogeneous groups of individuals, each with distinct initial biases and access to information of different quality. We show that in groups of independent agents who accumulate evidence the first to decide are those with the strongest initial biases. Their decisions align with their initial bias, regardless of the underlying truth. In contrast, agents who decide last make decisions as if they were initially unbiased and hence make better choices. We obtain asymptotic expressions in the large population limit quantifying how agents' initial inclinations shape early decisions. Our analysis shows how bias, information quality, and decision order interact in nontrivial ways to determine the reliability of decisions in a group.

Physical review. EVol. 110(2)
Florida State University (US), University of Colorado Boulder (US), University of Utah (US), University of Colorado System (US), University of Houston (US)
National Science Foundation, National Institutes of Health
Openalex Percentile: Top 16%
Opinion Dynamics and Social Influence
1.69
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Fast decisions reflect biases; slow decisions do not — Sean D. Lawley, Krešimir Josić́, et al. · Physical review. E (2024) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS