Driving Factors of Coordinated Development in Chinese Border Cities: A Case Study of Lincang City in Southwest China

In the context of the “Belt and Road Initiative”, the sustainable development of border cities is paramount for facilitating intergovernmental exchanges. Using the system dynamics approach, we integrated border policy factors to create the Border City Coordinated Development (BCCD-SD) model, encompassing three dimensions: Economic, Social, and Resource-Environment. Furthermore, a comprehensive evaluation indicator, the City Coordinated Development Index (CCDI), was devised. Using Lincang City in Southwest China as a case study, this article examines the trends in city development under three scenarios: Inertial Development, Rapid Development, and Green Development. The research findings demonstrate that the model adeptly captures trends in the city coordinated development indicators. Among the three scenarios, the rapid development scenario stands out, yielding the most favorable economic indicators, superior public infrastructure, and the highest employed population. However, the rapid development path, which is heavily focused on economic growth, intensifies resource and environmental pressures, giving rise to sustainability challenges. In contrast, although the green development scenario trails slightly in economic performance compared to rapid development, it fosters a larger urban population and transition of the employed population into citizens while excelling in resource and environmental aspects. Overall, the CCDI attains its highest score under the green development scenario, surpassing those of rapid and inertia development, signifying superior city development coordination along the green path. This scenario effectively combines economic growth, social progress, and resource-environment protection. This study also emphasizes the pivotal role of ports in the coordinated development of border cities and underscores the necessity of expediting the transition from a “gateway” economy to a “port+” economy. One objective of this article is to encourage border cities to serve as more effective windows to the outside world, promote regional coordination, and achieve high-quality development.