Spatiotemporal analysis of malaria in the state of Mato Grosso-Legal Amazon, Brazil: identification of high-risk áreas

The objective of the study was to analyze temporal and geographic data to identify high-risk areas for malaria occurrence in the state of Mato Grosso within the Legal Amazon. High-risk areas were identified through scan statistics, and the relative risk (RR) was characterized using cluster maps. Statistical temporal trend analysis was conducted using Prais-Winsten autoregression. A total of 20,819 cases were identified, with higher incidence rates among men. Malaria was predominantly diagnosed via thick blood smear microscopy, with Plasmodium vivax being the most prevalent species. The average incidence ranged from 0.01 to 2,849.85, with higher averages observed in the North, West, and Northwest regions. The Global Moran analysis revealed a positive correlation (0.47) between incidence rates and regions with a higher number of cases, while Local Moran identified distinct infection clusters. Eight risk clusters were delineated using scan statistics, with the highest RR recorded at 90.09. The spatiotemporal scan classified three statistically significant high-risk clusters exhibiting stationary temporal trends. These findings highlight the delineation of high-risk areas for malaria infection in Mato Grosso.