Climate change's influence on Chelydra serpentina's global and Chinese distribution and invasion: A MaxEnt model-based prediction

Chelydra serpentina (Linnaeus, 1758) is native to North America, but has been introduced to numerous nations and is now globally spread. It is extremely adaptive, grow quickly, and its biological population is steadily increasing as a result of the development of aquaculture technology. Given that Chelydra serpentina has already been found alive in the natural ecosystems of China, its proliferation poses a possible threat of invasion. Using the global distribution data of the species in the current environment, a study was carried out to forecast the distribution trend of Chelydra serpentina under future climate circumstances. The study compared the changes in the distribution area under current climatic circumstances and the tendency of proliferation using 19 bioclimatic factors and the ecological niche model Maxent. Using the significance index, the study also examined the size of the appropriate region and the influencing factors to estimate the danger of Chelydra serpentina invasion better quantitatively. In our research, we hypothesized that forthcoming climate change will affect the geographical distribution of Chelydra serpentina. The study results showed that, even in high-intensity environments, the appropriate area for Chelydra serpentina will steadily increase in the future climate. The extent of their suitable habitat might expand (the highly suitable area: 7.42*105 km2 <China>; 2.13*107 km2 <Global>) in contrast to the distribution area of Chelydra serpentina under the existing climate (highly suitable area: 6.01*105 km2 <China>; 8.48*106 km2 <Global>). The research findings indicate that the range of the habitat area predicted to proliferate (the highly suitable area of 6.31*105 km2 <China>; 1.3 *107 km2 <Global>) even in high-intensity environments, albeit at a slower rate than in the low-intensity environment model. The habitat will initially be concentrated in warmer regions before progressively expanding into the colder northern climate. This implies that Chelydra serpentina will be able to more easily adjust to future climates and spread outward over time from its concentrated home. Nonetheless, there is a chance of an invasion due to the rise in Chelydra serpentina populations. Upon establishing a regular reproductive presence in the Chinese waterways they inhabit, these turtles will engage in fierce competition with indigenous species for survival, posing a threat to the environment and potentially resulting in the extinction of some local species.