Integrated modeling of nature’s role in human well-being: A research agenda
• Integrated models can assess effects of ecosystem services on the global economy. • Insights from integrated models can improve management for sustainable development. • To be most useful, models need to link ecological impacts and human well-being. • Key advances include better incorporation of equity and social-ecological feedbacks. Integrated assessment models that incorporate biodiversity and ecosystem services could be an important tool for improving our understanding of interconnected social-economic-ecological systems, and for analyzing how policy alternatives can shift future trajectories towards more sustainable development. Despite recent scientific and technological advances, key gaps remain in the scientific community’s ability to deliver information to decision-makers at the pace and scale needed to address sustainability challenges. We identify five research frontiers for integrated social-economic-ecological modeling (primarily focused on terrestrial systems) to incorporate biodiversity and ecosystem services: 1) downscaling impacts of direct and indirect drivers on ecosystems; 2) incorporating feedbacks in ecosystems; 3) linking ecological impacts to human well-being, 4) disaggregating outcomes for distributional equity considerations, and 5) incorporating dynamic feedbacks of ecosystem services on the social-economic system. We discuss progress and challenges along each of these five frontiers and the science-policy linkages needed to move new research and information into action.
Authors
- Patrick von Jeetze (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1197-4412)
- William W. L. Cheung (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3626-1045)
- Garry Peterson (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0173-0112)
- Geoff Wells (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5416-951X)
- Tord Snäll (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5856-5539)
- Eric V. Lonsdorf
- Arnout van Soesbergen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3263-4011)
- Piero Visconti (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6823-2826)
- Henrique M. Pereira (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1043-1675)
- Ingo Fetzer (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7335-5679)
- Aline C. Soterroni (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3113-096X)
- Elke Stehfest (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3016-2679)
- Justin A. Johnson (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9903-1787)
- Rebecca Chaplin‐Kramer (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1539-5231)
- Stephen Polasky (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4934-2434)
- Aafke M. Schipper (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5667-0893)
- Lan Wang‐Erlandsson (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7739-5069)
- Rob Alkemade (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8761-1768)
- Thomas W. Hertel (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7179-7630)
- David Leclère (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8658-1509)
- Jan H. Janse (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6162-9943)
- Mark Mulligan (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0132-0888)
- Detlef Peter van Vuuren (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0398-2831)
- Jan J. Kuiper (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6655-9355)
- Stephanie Roe (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3821-6435)
- Samantha L. L. Hill (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0565-6554)
- Alexander Popp (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9500-1986)
- Hye Jin Kim (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3442-7948)
- Neil D. Burgess (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2291-4535)
- Mike Harfoot
Institutions
- University of Kassel (DE)
- University of Minnesota (US)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (NL)
- Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences (SE)
- Stockholm Resilience Centre (SE)
- University of British Columbia (CA)
- Radboud University Nijmegen (NL)
- Emory University (US)
- Stockholm University (SE)
- UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre (GB)
- King's College London (GB)
- Purdue University West Lafayette (US)
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (DE)
- Radboud University Medical Center (NL)
- Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SE)
- Leibniz Association (DE)
- University of Oxford (GB)
- World Wildlife Fund (US)
- Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NL)
- Radboud Institute for Molecular Life Sciences (NL)
- Vizzuality (Spain) (ES)
- Swedish Species Information Centre (SE)
- Bolin Centre for Climate Research (SE)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg (DE)
- Wageningen University & Research (NL)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Global Environmental Change
- Published
- 2024-08-12
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102891
- Citations
- 15
- Primary Topic
- Land Use and Ecosystem Services
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 4.24
Funders
- National Science Foundation
- UK Research and Innovation
- Sight Research UK
- European Commission
- Svenska Forskningsrådet Formas
- Vetenskapsrådet
- Marcus och Amalia Wallenbergs minnesfond
- HORIZON EUROPE Framework Programme
- Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
- Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada
- Natural Environment Research Council
- Office of International Science and Engineering