Vertical Crustal Deformation Due To Viscoelastic Earthquake Cycles at Subduction Zones: Implications for Nankai and Cascadia

Abstract Despite significant progress in studying subduction earthquake cycles, the vertical deformation is still not well understood. Here, we use a generic viscoelastic earthquake‐cycle model that has recently been validated by horizontal observations to explore the dynamics of vertical earthquake‐cycle deformation. Conditioned on two dimensionless parameters (i.e., the ratio of earthquake recurrence interval T to mantle Maxwell relaxation time t M ( T/t M ) and the ratio of downdip seismogenic depth D to elastic upper‐plate thickness H c ( D/H c )), the modeled viscoelastic deformation exhibits significant spatiotemporal deviations from the simple time‐independent elastic solution. Caution thus should be exercised in interpreting fault kinematics with vertical observations if ignoring Earth's viscoelasticity. By systematically exploring these two parameters, we further investigate three metrics that characterize the predicted vertical deformation: the coastal pivot line (CPL), the uplift zone (UZ) landward above the downdip seismogenic extent, and the secondary subsidence zone (SSZ) in the back‐arc region. We find that these metrics can all be time‐dependent, subject to D/H c and T/t M . The CPL location and the UZ width are mainly controlled by D/H c and T/t M , respectively. The presence of the SSZ is prevalent during the interseismic phase due to viscous mantle flow driven by ongoing plate convergence. Contemporary vertical deformation in Nankai and Cascadia is largely consistent with the model predictions and features differences mainly related to contrasting D/H c values in the two margins. These findings suggest that vertical crustal deformation bears fruitful information about subduction‐zone dynamics and is potentially useful for inversions of key subduction‐zone parameters, deserving properly designed monitoring.