The European Union as a Target: When Do Democratic Backsliders Rhetorically Challenge the EU?

Abstract Populist actors who conduct democratic backsliding incrementally eat away at institutional checks on power. Whilst they largely focus on domestic institutions, European Union (EU) member states have an international democratic institution to consider as well. In this article, we present and test a theory explaining changes in backslider rhetoric towards the EU. Whilst they often claim a position of Euroscepticism, their interactions with the EU are complicated. We argue that anti‐democratic actors consider the public perception of the EU and the likelihood of enforcement and sanctions from the EU when deciding what type of rhetoric to use. Using speeches from Orbán in Hungary and Duda in Poland, we find that the effect of public opinion on speech sentiment varies between leaders. We also find evidence of position blurring in response to increases in EU threat levels.