Projection of a winter ice-free Barents-Kara Sea by CMIP6 models with the CCHZ-DISO method

The winter sea ice over the Barents-Kara Sea (BKS) is reducing at an alarming rate, which impacts the Arctic shipping routes and the local ecosystems as well as the climate system across other regions. Consequently, it is imperative to project the winter ice-free state in this region to adequately prepare for future climate change and its impacts. However, most models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) show higher climatological values, weaker decreasing trends, and lower interannual variabilities in winter BKS sea ice concentration compared to observation. Additionally, it can be also seen that there exist great uncertainties in the projections of different models on whether the BKS region will be ice-free in future winters and the ice-free period, which spans almost the entire 21st century. Therefore, the study adopts two approaches developed from distance between indices of simulation and observation (DISO) method to project the winter ice-free period of the BKS under different emission scenarios. The results indicate that under SSP1–2.6, the winter BKS will not be ice-free by 2100. For SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5, the winter BKS is projected to be ice-free during 2076–2086, 2063–2068, and 2049–2061, respectively. By employing the DISO method, the projection uncertainty is reduced and the results highlight the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to delay the winter ice-free period over the BKS. These projections are intended to provide a reference for policymakers.