Population dependency ratios and economic growth in SAARC nations: Insights on aging and youth dynamics

This study aims to evaluate the influence of population dependency ratio on the economic growth of Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan, the three members of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). The study covers the time from 1960 to 2021. It also analyses in detail how population aging and the youth dependency ratio affects the development of certain sectors, including industry, services and agriculture. This study uses panel data to determine the influence of population dependency ratios on economic growth. To estimate this effect, we use the Pooled Mean Group/Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PMG/ARDL) technique. Based on the results obtained from the ARDL analysis indicate the presence of a long-term relationship among these variables. These discoveries align with prior empirical research conducted by Lee and Shin, Mamun et al., and Rostiana and Rodesbi. Furthermore, the findings suggest that an increase in the old age population dependency ratio positively influences economic growth within these nations. The long-term relationship findings pertaining to the old and young dependency ratio and economic growth corroborate the conclusions of Bawazir et al., who proposed that the old population dependency ratio exerts a favorable impact, while the young population has an adverse effect on economic growth. Originality: This research focused on the population dependency ratio, a pivotal demographic metric that gauges the proportion of individuals relying on support (including children and the elderly) compared to those of working age. This investigation particularly explores the interconnection between the population dependency ratio and sectoral development, an essential aspect given that various sectors make distinct contributions to economic advancement. Examining how population dynamics affect sectoral development yields valuable insights into the overall economic performance of Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh.