Together, taking the next step: using system dynamics modelling to build community renewable energy programmes in Aotearoa New Zealand

The Aotearoa New Zealand electricity sector is undergoing a transition to more distributed electricity generation, largely driven by the private sector. Local actors, however, are increasingly interested in playing a role in the energy transition, and addressing their resilience, with community renewable energy (CRE). These projects often have a wide range of impacts, dependent on the community's motivations, as well as the design and operation of the project. However, there is a lack of tools that can accurately quantify the impacts derived from CRE projects, and guide communities to build a portfolio of projects. This study used system dynamics modelling to analyse the impacts of CRE projects over a 40-year time span. The Energise Ōtaki community group in Aotearoa New Zealand was used as a case study given their already established CRE project and goals to expand their project portfolio. The system dynamics model showed if the community reinvested 80% of the profits from the first project into a second project would provide the greatest long-term benefit for the community in terms of the impact areas important to them. System dynamics modelling proved a useful tool in evaluating the wide range of impacts, and how they interact.