Public Administration Capacity Building through Exploring Downward Counterfactuals

Abstract Of all natural disasters, those especially liable to exhaust capacity are those that occur without a precedent, and cause surprise to public administration officials. This paper addresses this issue. Surprise can be mitigated by considering downward counterfactuals, which can be viewed as contributing to surprise management. These are alternative realizations of historical events, where things turned for the worse. Disaster risk may be mitigated by focusing on downward counterfactuals. Particular focus is given to the earthquake and volcanic risk at Campi Flegrei, in the Naples region of Italy, where the bradyseism crisis of 1982–1983 is considered from a downward counterfactual perspective.