Causal Inference in the Outer Radiation Belt: Evidence for Local Acceleration

Abstract Currently, there is no clear understanding of the comprehensive set of variables that controls fluxes of relativistic electrons within the outer radiation belt. Herein, the methodology based on causal inference is applied for identification of factors that control fluxes of relativistic electrons in the outer belt. The patterns of interactions between the solar wind, geomagnetic activity and belt electrons have been investigated. We found a significant information transfer from solar wind, geomagnetic activity and fluxes of very low energy electrons (54 keV), into fluxes of relativistic (470 keV) and ultra‐relativistic (2.23 MeV) electrons. We present evidence of a direct causal relationship from relativistic into ultra‐relativistic electrons, which points to a local acceleration mechanism for electrons energization. It is demonstrated that the observed information transfer from low energy electrons at 54 keV into energetic electrons at 470 keV is due to the presence of common external drivers such as substorm activity.