Linking ship-associated emissions and resource development in the Arctic: Trends and predictions along the Northern Sea Route

Arctic ship traffic has increased significantly due to continuous sea ice loss and resource extraction. The shipping sector is an important contributor to atmospheric emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and sulphur dioxide (SO2), and an increase in ship activity will lead to significant increases in these emissions. However, there is a lack of studies linking ship activities and the associated emissions with recent Arctic resource development activities. This study aims to assess the relationship between sector-specific developments (fishing, tourism, trade, oil, gas, mining, and “others”) and ship traffic, and the associated emissions from 2013 to 2023 along the Northern Sea Route (NSR), using time series analysis and linear regression. In addition, the relationships were further used to predict future ship-associated emissions by 2030, utilizing a combination of regression models and Holt-Winters’ trend and seasonal forecast. Results showed a 61% increase in distance travelled, 115% increase in NOx emissions, and 68% increase in SO2 emissions from 2013 to 2023. A strong positive linear relationship between oil and gas production and the ship-associated emissions of NOx and SO2 was found, with a coefficient of determination as high as 0.97. The oil sector emerged as the largest contributor to emissions from 2017 onward. Projections indicate that NOx and SO2 emissions will be more than doubled, reaching 12,400 and 1200 tonnes, respectively, by 2030, of which the oil sector accounts for 45 and 61% of the total emissions. This highlights the need for further emissions reduction measures, especially with expanding Arctic oil projects, in order to mitigate the environmental impact of increased resource-driven shipping along the NSR.