Tectonophysical Features of the Load–Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Caused by the Tokachi-Oki Earthquake (September 25, 2003, Mw = 8.3)

The paper presents the results of retrospective and tectonophysical analysis of the Tokachi-Oki earthquake source area on the September 25, 2003 (Mw = 8.3). Particular attention is paid to the Hidaka tectonic belt, the structures of which were affected by the Tokachi-Oki earthquake. The load–unload response ratio (LURR) method was applied at sufficient spatial (a square with a side of about 400 km) and temporal (continuous 20-year period) intervals to consider the results reliable. The forerunners of the Tokachi-Oki earthquake on the September 25, 2003, were revealed (on average, two years before the seismic event), which strictly determined the earthquake location. The data obtained with The method of cataclastic analysis (MCA), together with LURR data, made it possible to establish the stages of instability development in the Hidaka collision zone. The Hidaka tectonic belt became outlined by destruction zones (mainly horizontal compression) from 1997 to 2003 (up to the Tokachi-Oki earthquake). LURR anomalies were detected along the belt a couple of years before the earthquake. The prediction of the Tokachi-Oki earthquake by the LURR method is one of the most reliable in our practice.