Long-run availability of mineral resources: The dynamic case of lithium

Lithium requirements will increase substantially in the energy transition - raising concerns about adequacy and affordability of lithium over the long term. A cumulative availability curve (CAC) helps assess these concerns. A CAC summarizes estimates of quantities, costs and locations of resources, which are key characteristics of future resource availability. With estimates of in situ resources and production costs for 150 conventional and unconventional lithium deposits, the CAC developed in this study shows that: in situ resources doubled between 2009 and 2023 to 726 million metric tonnes lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), illustrating the dynamic nature of our knowledge of resources; cost estimates suggest an incentive price of US$12,500-$15,000 per metric tonne LCE, well below the peak price in 2023 but above the average price from 2011 to 2020; and resources are more geographically dispersed than current production. Production is not constrained by physical availability but by investment to convert resources into reserves, and further into operating mines and processing facilities, in ways that are environmentally and socially responsible. • Estimates of in situ resource quantities and production costs for 150 conventional and unconventional deposits. • In situ resources doubled between 2009 and 2023 to 726 million metric tonnes lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). • Cost estimates suggest an incentive price of US$12,500-$15,000 per metric tonne LCE, above the average price from 2011-2020. • Resources are more geographically dispersed than current production. • Physical availability is unlikely to be a limiting factor for meeting lithium demand for the energy transition.