Assessing climate-driven impacts on Karakoram glacier surge: A geospatial analysis highlighting Shishper Glacial Lake outburst flood events (2019–2022) as prime example

The Northern Areas of Pakistan encompass the Hindukush, Karakoram, and Himalayan mountain ranges witnessing glacier surging, exacerbated by climate warming. As glaciers rapidly melt, ravines experience heightened blockage and migration, obstructing stream discharges and forming expansive ice-dammed lakes. The rupture of these natural dams triggers Glacial Lake Outburst Floods downstream in the primary glacier's ravine. The catastrophic Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in 2022 across the Karakoram ranges in Northern Pakistan prompted this study. It focuses on Shishper Glacier Lake. The aim is to provide complete flood observations and their devastating effects on downstream communities. Analysis of Landsat 08 Imagery reveals the evolution of Shishper Glacier Lake from its initiation in November 2018 to the catastrophic GLOF in May 2022. The lake reached a maximum area of 0.32 km² in 2019 and its successive breaches on June 22, 2019, and May 29, 2020, reduced it to 0.018 km². Draining continued until July 2021, shrinking the lake area to 0.009 km². A noteworthy 2.73 °C temperature increase in 2022 correlated with an expansion of the lake area to 0.33 km², culminating in the GLOF on May 7th, 2022. The study emphasizes the critical need for mapping, assessing, and monitoring surging glaciers and glacier-formed lakes in the Karakoram ranges to safeguard downstream communities from potential hazards.