Spectral backtests unbounded and folded

In the spectral backtesting framework of Gordy and McNeil (JBF, 2020) a probability measure on the unit interval is used to weight the quantiles of greatest interest in the validation of forecast models using probability-integral transform (PIT) data. We extend this framework to allow general Lebesgue-Stieltjes kernel measures with unbounded distribution functions, which brings powerful new tests based on truncated location-scale families into the spectral class. Moreover, by considering uniform distribution preserving transformations of PIT values the test framework is generalized to allow tests that are focused on both tails of the forecast distribution.

Authors

Institutions

Publication Details

Journal
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
Published
2024-08-01
DOI
https://doi.org/10.17016/feds.2024.060
Primary Topic
Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00
Controls
|||
ALL TIME
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
article

Spectral backtests unbounded and folded

Alexander J. McNeil, Michael B. Gordy
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling
article

Spectral backtests unbounded and folded

Alexander J. McNeil, Michael B. Gordy
article en

Abstract

In the spectral backtesting framework of Gordy and McNeil (JBF, 2020) a probability measure on the unit interval is used to weight the quantiles of greatest interest in the validation of forecast models using probability-integral transform (PIT) data. We extend this framework to allow general Lebesgue-Stieltjes kernel measures with unbounded distribution functions, which brings powerful new tests based on truncated location-scale families into the spectral class. Moreover, by considering uniform distribution preserving transformations of PIT values the test framework is generalized to allow tests that are focused on both tails of the forecast distribution.

Finance and Economics Discussion Series(2024-060)
Federal Reserve (US), Federal Reserve Board of Governors (US), University of York (GB)
Openalex Percentile: Top 83%
Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling
AI Navigator

Ask Laika to Summarize, Analyze, and Connect papers live on the map.

Summarize Papers & Methodologies

Extract key findings, datasets, and comparative methods across publications.

Benchmark Rankings & Visual Analytics

Rank top research institutions, authors, funders, topics, and journals by Field-Weighted Citation Impact (FWCI) and paper volume with instant charts.

Connect Distant Disciplines

Bridge topological clusters on the map to find hidden collaborative intersections.