2245 Disease trajectories and medical expenditures of older long-term care residents in China: prospective observational study

Abstract Introduction Global ageing and an increasing disability population impose huge health and economic burdens on societies, and understanding the impact of disability on mortality and medical expenditures among the elderly is vital. Methods This study was based on the government-led long-term care insurance program initiated in July 2017 and followed up to June 2021. Diagnosis and hospitalisation costs were extracted from electronic medical records and medical insurance system. The networks of the disease trajectories were established by combining disease pairs with overlapping diseases. Medical expenditures relating to exact disease were calculated and compared between age groups. Results The 30,003 participants had a mean age of 79.6 ± 11.1 years, with 57.0% females. After a mean follow-up time of 21 ± 16 months, 17,428 (58.1%) death were observed. Diseases with the highest HRs included septic shock (HR 3.59, 95% CI, 3.36–3.84), respiratory failure (HR 3.19, 95% CI, 3.05–3.34), sepsis (HR 2.98, 95% CI, 2.80–3.18), malnutrition (HR 2.38, 95% CI, 2.27–2.48), and decubitus ulcer (HR 2.27, 95% CI, 2.14–2.41). The disease trajectories were initially related to hypertension and diabetes mellitus, while mortality was associated with malnutrition, infectious diseases, and organic failure. In subgroup analysis, participants with older age, those living in nursing institutions, and males had more complex disease trajectories. The medical costs gradually decreased with increasing age, and there was a rapid increasing trend before death for the decedents. Among the diseases of top 30 frequent hospitalisation visits, intracerebral haemorrhage, sepsis, and respiratory failure ranked as the top three total medical costs. Conclusions The study shows that malnutrition and infection-related diseases contribute to death in older disabled and the latter account for part of the highest medical cost, calling for comprehensive strategies for infection prevention and treatment.