2243 Modification effect of disability profiles on the association of blood pressure and mortality among older long-term care people

Abstract Introduction Evidence of the optimal blood pressure target for older people with disability in long-term care is limited. We aim to estimate the associations of blood pressure with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in older people with different profiles of disability. Methods This prospective cohort study was based on the government-led long-term care program in Chengdu, China, including 41,004 consecutive disabled adults aged ≥60 years. The association between blood pressure and mortality was analysed with doubly robust estimation, which combined exposure model by inverse probability weighting and outcome model fitted with Cox regression. The non-linearity was examined by restricted cubic spline. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality, and the secondary endpoints were cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular mortality. Results The associations between systolic blood pressure (SBP) and all-cause mortality were close to a U-shaped curve in mild–moderate disability group (Barthel index ≥40), and a reversed J-shaped in severe disability group (Barthel index <40). In mild–moderate disability group, SBP < 135 mmHg was associated with elevated all-cause mortality risks (HR 1.21, 95% CI, 1.10–1.33), compared to SBP between 135–150 mmHg. In severe disability group, SBP <150 mmHg increased all-cause mortality risks (HR 1.21, 95% CI, 1.16–1.27), compared to SBP between 150–170 mmHg. The associations were robust in subgroup analyses in terms of age, cardiovascular comorbidity and antihypertensive treatment. Diastolic blood pressure (DBP) < 67 mmHg (HR 1.29, 95% CI, 1.18–1.42) in mild–moderate disability group and < 79 mmHg (HR 1.15, 95% CI, 1.11–1.20) in severe disability group both demonstrated an increased all-cause mortality risk. Conclusion The optimal blood pressure range was higher in older long-term care people with severe disability than those with mild–moderate disability. This study provides new evidence for optimal individualised management of blood pressure in disabled older people in long-term care settings.