Assessing the risk of climate maladaptation for Canadian polar bears
The Arctic is warming four times faster than the rest of the world, threatening the persistence of many Arctic species. It is uncertain if Arctic wildlife will have sufficient time to adapt to such rapidly warming environments. We used genetic forecasting to measure the risk of maladaptation to warming temperatures and sea ice loss in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) sampled across the Canadian Arctic. We found evidence for local adaptation to sea ice conditions and temperature. Forecasting of genome-environment mismatches for predicted climate scenarios suggested that polar bears in the Canadian high Arctic had the greatest risk of becoming maladapted to climate warming. While Canadian high Arctic bears may be the most likely to become maladapted, all polar bears face potentially negative outcomes to climate change. Given the importance of the sea ice habitat to polar bears, we expect that maladaptation to future warming is already widespread across Canada.
Authors
- Colin J. Garroway (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0955-0688)
- Corey S. Davis (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4362-0659)
- Erik W. Born (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8151-5481)
- Megan A. Owen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1655-3972)
- Evelien de Greef (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5268-6046)
- Steven Baryluk
- Nicholas J. Lunn (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0189-5494)
- Joshua M. Miller (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4019-7675)
- Aryn P. Wilder (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4970-6891)
- Evan S. Richardson (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3172-5592)
- Todd C. Atwood (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1971-3110)
- Kristin L. Laidre (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2787-650X)
- Øystein Wiig (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0395-5251)
- Amélie Roberto‐Charron (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5917-4919)
- L. Ruth Rivkin (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2632-3388)
- Martyn E. Obbard (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2064-0155)
- Nicholas W. Pilfold (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5324-5499)
- Markus Dyck
- Sara McCarthy
Institutions
- United States Geological Survey (US)
- Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry (CA)
- Zoological Society of San Diego (US)
- Environment and Climate Change Canada (CA)
- University of Alberta (CA)
- University of Oslo (NO)
- University of Washington (US)
- Government of Newfoundland and Labrador (CA)
- Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (US)
- Grønlands Naturinstitut (GL)
- Government of Nunavut (CA)
- Government of Northwest Territories (CA)
- U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center
- University of Manitoba (CA)
- Trent University (CA)
- MacEwan University (CA)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Ecology Letters
- Published
- 2024-08-01
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.14486
- Citations
- 4
- Primary Topic
- Marine animal studies overview
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 1.84