Sapling recruitment as an indicator of carbon resiliency in forests of the northern <scp>USA</scp>

Tree regeneration shapes forest carbon dynamics by determining long-term forest composition and structure, which suggests that threats to natural regeneration may diminish the capacity of forests to replace live tree carbon transferred to the atmosphere or other pools through tree mortality. Yet, the potential implications of tree regeneration patterns for future carbon dynamics have been sparsely studied. We used forest inventory plots to investigate whether the composition of existing tree regeneration is consistent with aboveground carbon stock loss, replacement, or gain for forests across the northeastern and midwestern USA, leveraging a recently developed method to predict the likelihood of sapling recruitment from seedling abundance tallied within six seedling height classes. A comparison of carbon stock predictions from tree and seedling composition suggested that 29% of plots were poised to lose carbon based on seedling composition, 55% were poised for replacement of carbon stocks (<5 Mg ha^-1 difference) and 16% were poised to gain carbon. Forests predicted to lose carbon tended to be on steeper slopes, at lower latitudes, and in rolling upland environments. Although plots predicted to gain and lose carbon had similar stand ages, carbon loss plots had greater current carbon stocks. <i>Synthesis and applications.</i> Our results demonstrate the utility of considering tree regeneration through the lens of carbon replacement to develop effective management strategies to secure long-term carbon storage and resilience in the context of global change. Forests poised to lose C due to climate change and other stressors could be prioritized for regeneration strategies that enhance long-term carbon resilience and stewardship.