A road to the next pandemic: the consequences of Amazon highway BR-319 for planetary health

President Lula's triumph in the October, 2022, elections signalled a commitment to fostering a more technical government that prioritised the application of science for environmental protection and the enhancement of public health. During the 28th UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in Dubai, on Dec 1, 2023, Lula spoke about climate change, pledging to attain zero deforestation in Brazil by 2030 and achieve climate neutrality by 2050.1Ferrante L Becker CG Brazil must reverse gear on Amazon road development.Nature. 2024; 626: 33Crossref PubMed Scopus (1) Google Scholar However, just 3 days later, Lula's administration gave the green light for the incorporation of highway BR-319 into the Amazon's development plan, linking one of the most preserved blocks of forest in the central Amazon to the infamous so-called Amazonian deforestation arc.1Ferrante L Becker CG Brazil must reverse gear on Amazon road development.Nature. 2024; 626: 33Crossref PubMed Scopus (1) Google Scholar, 2Ferrante L Andrade MBT Fearnside PM Land grabbing on Brazil's Highway BR-319 as a spearhead for Amazonian deforestation.Land Use Policy. 2021; 108105559Crossref Scopus (37) Google Scholar The repaving of highway BR-319 exposes the pristine forest block between the Purus and Madeira rivers and unlocks the trans-Purus region, an extensive area of preserved forest, through unauthorised pathways that intersect with the proposed route AM-366.1Ferrante L Becker CG Brazil must reverse gear on Amazon road development.Nature. 2024; 626: 33Crossref PubMed Scopus (1) Google Scholar Both the BR-319 and trans-Purus regions have taken centre stage in Lula's government initiatives, presenting a stark contrast to their environmental rhetoric.1Ferrante L Becker CG Brazil must reverse gear on Amazon road development.Nature. 2024; 626: 33Crossref PubMed Scopus (1) Google Scholar These initiatives promote the expansion of activities such as livestock farming, mining, and oil exploration into some of the last remaining extensive sections of the world's pristine rainforests.1Ferrante L Becker CG Brazil must reverse gear on Amazon road development.Nature. 2024; 626: 33Crossref PubMed Scopus (1) Google Scholar If highway BR-319 is paved, in the most conservative scenario, deforestation rates would increase by 1200% compared with the baseline observed in 2011,3Santos Junior, MA Yanai AM Sousa Junior, FO et al.BR-319 como propulsora de desmatamento: simulando o impacto da rodovia Manaus-Porto Velho. IDESAM, Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil2018Google Scholar compromising one of the most preserved blocks of forest and posing one of the highest risks of zoonotic spillovers.1Ferrante L Becker CG Brazil must reverse gear on Amazon road development.Nature. 2024; 626: 33Crossref PubMed Scopus (1) Google Scholar In this region of the Amazon, which is one of the largest reservoirs of pathogens,1Ferrante L Becker CG Brazil must reverse gear on Amazon road development.Nature. 2024; 626: 33Crossref PubMed Scopus (1) Google Scholar, 4Ferrante L Barbosa RI Duczmal L Fearnside PM Brazil's planned exploitation of Amazonian indigenous lands for commercial agriculture increases risk of new pandemics.Reg Environ Change. 2021; 21: 81Crossref PubMed Scopus (17) Google Scholar new close-confinement livestock production chains with minimal environmental and sanitary oversight further propel deforestation.4Ferrante L Barbosa RI Duczmal L Fearnside PM Brazil's planned exploitation of Amazonian indigenous lands for commercial agriculture increases risk of new pandemics.Reg Environ Change. 2021; 21: 81Crossref PubMed Scopus (17) Google Scholar Alarmingly, the implementation of intensive poultry, pig, and cattle farming in this section of Amazonia targets Indigenous lands and traditional peoples who are economically vulnerable.4Ferrante L Barbosa RI Duczmal L Fearnside PM Brazil's planned exploitation of Amazonian indigenous lands for commercial agriculture increases risk of new pandemics.Reg Environ Change. 2021; 21: 81Crossref PubMed Scopus (17) Google Scholar This new food production chain endangers the Amazon's Indigenous communities by increasing their exposure to high-virulence parasites, worsens public health disparities, and potentially jeopardises crucial export markets in Europe, North America, and Asia.4Ferrante L Barbosa RI Duczmal L Fearnside PM Brazil's planned exploitation of Amazonian indigenous lands for commercial agriculture increases risk of new pandemics.Reg Environ Change. 2021; 21: 81Crossref PubMed Scopus (17) Google Scholar Possible cross-contamination in the food production chain might involve salmonella, the third-leading cause of foodborne infection-related deaths worldwide, and strains of influenza found in poultry and pigs. In addition to the risk of increased transmission and the evolution of antibiotic resistance of known pathogens, the risk of emergence of unknown pathogens is high. In areas of high biodiversity, zoonotic leaps are often linked with environmental degradation.4Ferrante L Barbosa RI Duczmal L Fearnside PM Brazil's planned exploitation of Amazonian indigenous lands for commercial agriculture increases risk of new pandemics.Reg Environ Change. 2021; 21: 81Crossref PubMed Scopus (17) Google Scholar, 5Ferrante L Fearnside PM Brazil's Amazon oxygen crisis: how lives and health were sacrificed during the peak of COVID-19 to promote an agenda with long-term consequences for the environment, Indigenous peoples, and health.J Racial Ethn Health Disparities. 2023; (published online May 15.)https://doi.org/10.1007/s40615-023-01626-1Google Scholar, 6Olivero J Fa JE Real R et al.Recent loss of closed forests is associated with Ebola virus disease outbreaks.Sci Rep. 2017; 714291Crossref Scopus (124) Google Scholar, 7Fan Y Zhao K Shi ZL Zhou P Bat coronaviruses in China.Viruses. 2019; 11: 210Crossref PubMed Scopus (432) Google Scholar When wildlife are capable of carrying various pathogens, they can act as a bridge between environmental pathogen reservoirs and humans. The enhanced mobility through the still-unpaved sections of BR-319 has led to an increase in deforestation and forest degradation and expanded routes for the transmission of known tropical diseases, such as malaria.5Ferrante L Fearnside PM Brazil's Amazon oxygen crisis: how lives and health were sacrificed during the peak of COVID-19 to promote an agenda with long-term consequences for the environment, Indigenous peoples, and health.J Racial Ethn Health Disparities. 2023; (published online May 15.)https://doi.org/10.1007/s40615-023-01626-1Google Scholar This finding serves as a proxy for the potential expansion of routes and the emergence of novel diseases.5Ferrante L Fearnside PM Brazil's Amazon oxygen crisis: how lives and health were sacrificed during the peak of COVID-19 to promote an agenda with long-term consequences for the environment, Indigenous peoples, and health.J Racial Ethn Health Disparities. 2023; (published online May 15.)https://doi.org/10.1007/s40615-023-01626-1Google Scholar For comparison, an analysis based on 27 Ebola outbreak sites and 280 similar control sites indicated that spillover occurring at the edges of biodiverse African rainforests showed a correlation with deforestation that had taken place within the preceding 2 years.6Olivero J Fa JE Real R et al.Recent loss of closed forests is associated with Ebola virus disease outbreaks.Sci Rep. 2017; 714291Crossref Scopus (124) Google Scholar The COVID-19 pandemic, the most severe pandemic of this century so far, is linked to the spillover of a betacoronavirus previously identified in bats.7Fan Y Zhao K Shi ZL Zhou P Bat coronaviruses in China.Viruses. 2019; 11: 210Crossref PubMed Scopus (432) Google Scholar In Manaus, in the central Amazon, increased urban mobility before vaccinations heightened SARS-CoV-2 community transmission, leading to a second COVID-19 wave and the emergence of the gamma variant (P.1).8Ferrante L Duczmal LH Capanema E et al.Dynamics of COVID-19 in Amazonia: a history of government denialism and the risk of a third wave.Prev Med Rep. 2022; 26101752PubMed Google Scholar This process shows how heightened mobility amplifies transmission and new strain emergence in contact-driven epidemics. Two identified triggers for pandemics are escalating forest degradation in high-biodiversity areas and social factors that accelerate pathogen spread, such as the opening of roads like the Amazonas BR-319, which has already caused a 400% increase in malaria cases.5Ferrante L Fearnside PM Brazil's Amazon oxygen crisis: how lives and health were sacrificed during the peak of COVID-19 to promote an agenda with long-term consequences for the environment, Indigenous peoples, and health.J Racial Ethn Health Disparities. 2023; (published online May 15.)https://doi.org/10.1007/s40615-023-01626-1Google Scholar Opening roads can allow pathogens in the preserved forest to come into contact with humans and also pose new disease risks for endangered wildlife.1Ferrante L Becker CG Brazil must reverse gear on Amazon road development.Nature. 2024; 626: 33Crossref PubMed Scopus (1) Google Scholar, 9Becker CG Rodriguez D Lambertini C Toledo LF Haddad CFB Historical dynamics of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in Amazonia.Ecography. 2016; 39: 954-960Crossref Scopus (31) Google Scholar Establishing new roadways in the Amazon might promote the transmission of pathogens of important conservation concern, such as the amphibian chytrid fungus, recognised as one of the most devastating wildlife diseases of our era.9Becker CG Rodriguez D Lambertini C Toledo LF Haddad CFB Historical dynamics of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in Amazonia.Ecography. 2016; 39: 954-960Crossref Scopus (31) Google Scholar The opening of roads in the southern Amazon has already been linked to chytrid spread,9Becker CG Rodriguez D Lambertini C Toledo LF Haddad CFB Historical dynamics of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in Amazonia.Ecography. 2016; 39: 954-960Crossref Scopus (31) Google Scholar and mass amphibian extinction driven by chytrid outbreaks in adjacent neotropical forests has triggered cascading declines in other vertebrates, such as snakes,10Zipkin EF DiRenzo GV Ray JM Rossman S Lips KR Tropical snake diversity collapses after widespread amphibian loss.Science. 2020; 367: 814-816Crossref PubMed Scopus (118) Google Scholar leading to far-reaching consequences for biodiversity across entire ecosystems.10Zipkin EF DiRenzo GV Ray JM Rossman S Lips KR Tropical snake diversity collapses after widespread amphibian loss.Science. 2020; 367: 814-816Crossref PubMed Scopus (118) Google Scholar A 2022 study suggests an association between amphibian declines, attributed to the chytrid fungus, and the increased incidence of malaria in central American rainforests.11Springborn MR Weill JA Lips KR Ibáñez R Ghosh A Amphibian collapses increased malaria incidence in Central America.Environ Res Lett. 2022; 17104012Crossref Scopus (21) Google Scholar This link is presumed to stem from the collapse of food webs and the uncontrolled proliferation of disease vectors.10Zipkin EF DiRenzo GV Ray JM Rossman S Lips KR Tropical snake diversity collapses after widespread amphibian loss.Science. 2020; 367: 814-816Crossref PubMed Scopus (118) Google Scholar Reducing confined livestock production and preventing the expansion of transportation routes through natural areas in the Amazon is crucial to curb the transmission of diseases affecting biodiversity and human health.4Ferrante L Barbosa RI Duczmal L Fearnside PM Brazil's planned exploitation of Amazonian indigenous lands for commercial agriculture increases risk of new pandemics.Reg Environ Change. 2021; 21: 81Crossref PubMed Scopus (17) Google Scholar Due to the connection of the so-called deforestation arc with central Amazonia, leading to widespread deforestation and forest degradation in the region and resulting in increased risks of zoonotic spillovers, the Brazilian government should reconsider the paving of BR-319.1Ferrante L Becker CG Brazil must reverse gear on Amazon road development.Nature. 2024; 626: 33Crossref PubMed Scopus (1) Google Scholar, 5Ferrante L Fearnside PM Brazil's Amazon oxygen crisis: how lives and health were sacrificed during the peak of COVID-19 to promote an agenda with long-term consequences for the environment, Indigenous peoples, and health.J Racial Ethn Health Disparities. 2023; (published online May 15.)https://doi.org/10.1007/s40615-023-01626-1Google Scholar Land grabbing rates in the BR-319 highway area are 3 times higher than those in other parts of the Amazon.2Ferrante L Andrade MBT Fearnside PM Land grabbing on Brazil's Highway BR-319 as a spearhead for Amazonian deforestation.Land Use Policy. 2021; 108105559Crossref Scopus (37) Google Scholar Countries that import Brazilian commodities, such as beef, poultry, and pork, which were already associated with deforestation in the central Amazon region, along with minerals such as potassium, oil, and crops used for biofuel production, such as palm oil, sugarcane, and corn, should reevaluate these imports.1Ferrante L Becker CG Brazil must reverse gear on Amazon road development.Nature. 2024; 626: 33Crossref PubMed Scopus (1) Google Scholar, 4Ferrante L Barbosa RI Duczmal L Fearnside PM Brazil's planned exploitation of Amazonian indigenous lands for commercial agriculture increases risk of new pandemics.Reg Environ Change. 2021; 21: 81Crossref PubMed Scopus (17) Google Scholar Whether to pave the way toward a potential pandemic is a decision that lies in Lula's hands. This crucial aspect should not be disregarded in agreements involving Mercosur (the Southern Common Market) and the EU. Lula urgently needs to form a larger council to discuss the paving of BR-319, including the Ministry of the Environment, the Ministry of Indigenous Peoples, and the Ministry of Health, as well as environmental regulatory agencies such as the Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources.2Ferrante L Andrade MBT Fearnside PM Land grabbing on Brazil's Highway BR-319 as a spearhead for Amazonian deforestation.Land Use Policy. 2021; 108105559Crossref Scopus (37) Google Scholar Defenders of the highway argue that the resulting environmental problems could be solved through a Park Road (a road that cuts through an area designated for environmental preservation) and engineering projects; however, such proposals are counter-intuitive and antiscientific, since the higher traffic threshold and the increased access to the region have led to increased deforestation and facilitated zoonotic spillovers.5Ferrante L Fearnside PM Brazil's Amazon oxygen crisis: how lives and health were sacrificed during the peak of COVID-19 to promote an agenda with long-term consequences for the environment, Indigenous peoples, and health.J Racial Ethn Health Disparities. 2023; (published online May 15.)https://doi.org/10.1007/s40615-023-01626-1Google Scholar Decision makers must understand that this is not an engineering problem, but an environmental and public health issue. I declare no competing interests.