Can Agricultural Managed Aquifer Recharge (Ag‐MAR) Recover Return Flows Under Prior Appropriation in a Warming Climate?

Abstract Groundwater return flow to streams is important for maintaining aquatic habitat and providing water to downstream users, particularly in irrigated watersheds experiencing water scarcity. However, in many agricultural regions, increased irrigation efficiency has reduced return flows and their subsequent in‐stream benefits. Agricultural managed aquifer recharge (Ag‐MAR)—where artificial recharge is conducted via irrigation canals and agricultural fields—may be a tool to recover these return flows, but implementation is challenged by water supply and water management. Using climate‐driven streamflow simulations, an integrated operations‐hydrology model, and a regional groundwater model, we investigated the potential for Ag‐MAR to recover return flows in the Henrys Fork Snake River, Idaho (USA). We simulated potential Ag‐MAR operations for water years 2023–2052, accounting for both future water supply conditions and local water management rules. We determined that Ag‐MAR operations reduced springtime peak flow at the watershed outlet by 10%–14% after accounting for return flows. Recharge contribution to streamflow peaked in July and November, increasing July–August streamflow by 6%–14% and November–March streamflow by 9%–14%. Furthermore, sites where Ag‐MAR was conducted incidental to flood irrigation had more water available for recharge, compared to sites requiring recharge rights, which are junior in priority to agricultural rights. Mean annual recharge volume for the incidental recharge sites averaged 12% of annual natural streamflow, ranged from 269 to 335 Mm 3 , and was largely available in April and October. We demonstrate Ag‐MAR can effectively recover groundwater return flows when applied as flood irrigation on agricultural land with senior‐priority water rights.