Managing the risk of program failure: Propositional Evaluation as a tool for risk management

Public policy and programs fail for a range of reasons, some preventable and some much harder to treat. Program administrators require methods for managing risk. This article argues that evaluation can be a useful tool for identifying and managing risk. It offers Propositional Evaluation as a cost-effective, risk-based approach to the evaluation of any policy, program, initiative, or simply, plan of action for the public good. Propositional Evaluation treats programs as propositions for action and focuses on developing sound, that is, valid and well-grounded propositions. It begins in the design phase and continues through delivery to provide a means for identifying and managing risks to achieving intended outcomes. This article situates Propositional Evaluation approach in the evaluation theory literature. It reflects on common causes of program failure and identifies those evaluators may help program administrators identify and mitigate. It provides a description of five critical and five residual risks that derive from the propositional approach. Evaluating these risks provides a structure for evaluation and adaptive management. The intended audience is program administrators, and evaluators working to support them who require prospective evaluation and adaptive management or rapid and cost-effective evaluation for program design and re-design.