Evaluating the Potential of Natural Gas in Achieving the Nigeria Energy Transition Plan

Abstract Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas that causes climate change. According to the Global Carbon Budget (2022), Nigeria ranked fourth in CO2emissions (136,986,780 tonnes) in Africa. Such high carbon emissions have exacerbated the effects of climate change in Nigeria. Increase in temperature, a result of climate change, is affecting millions of Nigerians without access to electricity and alterations in precipitation patterns threaten an under-performing agricultural sector. Desertification in the north and an increase in flooding incidents emphasized the need to reduce carbon emissions. Consequently, the Nigeria Energy Transition Plan (ETP) was launched in 2022 to reduce emissions in 5 key sectors: power, cooking, oil and gas, transport, and industry. According to the Nigeria ETP released, these sectors account for about 65% of Nigeria's emissions. Ultimately, aiming to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. This paper adopts an analytical model to determine the best strategy to implement natural gas in reducing emissions in the most carbon-intensive sectors according to the Nigeria ETP: power (48MtCO2e), transport (43MtCO2e), and cooking (40MtCO2e). Relevant data from the largest consumers of natural gas were extensively analyzed to evaluate the potential and efficiency of natural gas in reducing emissions in the power, transport, and cooking sector. The results confirmed the potential of natural gas in reducing emissions in the power sector. The findings were adapted to Nigeria's energy consumption data to provide an alternative plan to reduce emissions in the transport and cooking sectors by optimizing natural gas utilization in the power sector. Hence, achieving the Nigeria Energy Transition Plan. With the huge investment required to achieve the Nigeria Energy Transition Plan, this study could provide an economical alternative to achieve carbon neutrality by reducing emissions in the transport and cooking sectors through improving natural utilization in the power sector.