Home sharing or crime sharing? Evidences of the relationship between Airbnb, crime and structural factors in Malaga, Spain

Negative externalities stemming from overtourism have been widely reported in the literature. However, a consequence less explored in scientific research is the increase in crime rates derived from high levels of tourism. This article analyses the relationship between the concentration of Airbnb accommodation and crime density in the city of Malaga (Spain); both the social disorganization and the routine activities theories are used as the theoretical basis. The region under study has been defined by removing the non-urbanized part of the city and the unit of spatial analysis is the census tract. The relationship between Airbnb and crime has been measured by controlling for other factors traditionally related to crime. Two models that take into account the spatial nature of the data have been employed: a two-stage spatially weighted spatial least squares model and a geographically weighted regression model. Results show that Airbnb is significantly related to an increase in crime density in the census tract, as is the proportion of people born in countries with a Human Development Index below.825. Nightlife likewise shows a significant relationship with crime in the city, but this relationship is inverse. Nevertheless, the variable that shows the strongest link is crime itself in neighboring census tracts. An increase in crime in a given region leads to an increase in crime in the surrounding census tracts. However, the local model reveals that the impact of crime in adjacent units is not related in the same way to local crime in region analyzed as a whole. The policy implications of these results and other findings contrary to the original criminological theories are discussed.