The Carbon Footprint and Influencing Factors of the Main Grain Crops in the North China Plain

The North China Plain (NCP) serves as a critical grain-producing region in China, playing a pivotal role in ensuring the nation’s food security. A comprehensive analysis of the carbon footprint (CF) related to the cultivation of major grain crops within this region and the proposal of strategies to reduce emissions through low-carbon production methods are crucial for advancing sustainable agricultural practices in China. This study employed the lifecycle assessment (LCA) method to estimate the CF of wheat, maize, and rice crops over a period from 2013 to 2022, based on statistical data collected from five key provinces and cities in the NCP: Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong, and Henan. Additionally, the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model was utilized to analyze the influencing factors. The results indicated that the carbon footprints per unit area (CFA) of maize, wheat, and rice increased between 2013 and 2022. Rice had the highest carbon footprint per unit yield (CFY), averaging 1.1 kg CO2-eq kg−1, with significant fluctuations over time. In contrast, the CFY of wheat and maize remained relatively stable from 2013 to 2022. Fertilizers contributed the most to CF composition, accounting for 48.8%, 48.0%, and 25.9% of the total carbon inputs for wheat, maize, and rice, respectively. The electricity used for irrigation in rice production was 31.8%, which was much higher than that of wheat (6.8%) and maize (7.1%). The LMDI model showed that the labor effect was a common suppressing factor for the carbon emissions of maize, wheat, and rice in the NCP, while the agricultural structure effect and the economic development effect were common driving factors. By improving the efficiency of fertilizer and pesticide utilization, cultivating new varieties, increasing the mechanical operation efficiency, the irrigation efficiency, and policy support, the CF of grain crop production in the NCP can be effectively reduced. These efforts will contribute to the sustainable development of agricultural practices in the NCP and support China’s efforts to achieve its “double carbon” target.