Estimation of mode I fracture toughness of rocks exposed to different environmental conditions using simple and linear multiple regression

Abstract Mode I fracture toughness (Kıc) is a critical parameter in rock mechanics that is essential for understanding how rocks behave under tensile loading and crucial for applications ranging from safety assessments to structural design in geotechnical engineering. This study comprehensively investigates the influence of various environmental conditions (dry, saturated, frozen, thermal shock and thermal aging) on the physico-mechanical properties and Kıc of rocks. The primary novelty of this study lies in its comprehensive modeling approach under diverse environmental conditions, providing a nuanced understanding of factors influencing rock fracture toughness. By extending analysis to less-studied conditions such as freezing and thermal shock cycles, the study enhances the predictive capacity of fracture toughness models in practical geotechnical applications. Physico-mechanical properties, including uniaxial compressive strength, point load strength, Brazilian tensile strength (BT), Schmidt hardness, and ultrasonic wave velocity were evaluated across different environmental scenarios. Simple and linear multiple regression models were developed using these properties to predict Kıc. Notably, BT emerged as a significant predictor in the simple regression analyzes. Ten linear multiple regression models were formulated using SPSS 20, combining mechanical tests (UCS, BT, PL) with non-destructive testing methods (Vp, Vs, SH), demonstrating robust predictive capabilities with R 2 values exceeding 0.95. Performance metrics (mean absolute error, mean absolute percentage error, root mean square error) were used to verify the accuracy of the model.