Koopmans, Dantzig, and the Wartime Origins of Activity Analysis

Abstract In the introduction to Activity Analysis of Production and Allocation (Cowles Monograph No. 13), Tjalling C. Koopmans recalled that he developed the model of his “Optimal Utilization of the Transportation System” (in the proceedings of 1947 International Statistical Congress, which were reissued as an Econometrica supplement, 1949) “under the stimulation of statistical work for the Combined Shipping Adjustment Board, the British-American board dealing with merchant shipping problems during the second world war.” Similarly, the contributions of George B. Dantzig and Marshall K. Wood to Cowles Monograph No. 13 (two revised journal articles and five new chapters) emerged from wartime work for the US Army Air Force and postwar work for the Department of the Air Force. This article examines the context and consequences of the wartime roots of these foundational contributions to activity analysis and linear programming, with particular attention to Koopmans's 1942 memorandum for the Combined Shipping Adjustment Board titled “Exchange Ratios between Cargoes on Various Routes” (first published in his Scientific Papers, 1970).