Deep learning-based modeling of land use/land cover changes impact on land surface temperature in Greater Amman Municipality, Jordan (1980–2030)

Abstract Modeling the impacts of Land Use/Land Cover changes (LULCC) on Land Surface Temperature (LST) is crucial in understanding and managing urban heat islands, climate change, energy consumption, human health, and ecosystem dynamics. This study aimed to model past, present, and future LULCC on Land Surface Temperatures in the Greater Amman Municipality (GAM) in Jordan between 1980 and 2030. A set of maps for land cover, LST, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI), and topography was integrated into the Cellular Automata-Artificial Neural Network (CA-ANN) and the Long-Short-Term Model (LSTM) models to predict the LULC and LST for 2030. The results showed an expansion of urban areas in GAM from 54.13 km 2 (6.6%) in 1980 to 374.1 km 2 (45.3%) in 2023. However, agricultural areas decreased from 152.13 km 2 (18.5%) in 1980 to 140.38 km 2 (17%) in 2023, while barren lands decreased from 54.44 km 2 (6.6%) in 1980 to 34.71 km 2 (4.22%) in 2023. Forested areas declined from 4.58 km 2 (0.56%) in 1980 to 4.35 km 2 (0.53%) in 2023. Rangelands/ sparsely vegetated areas declined from 557 km 2 (67.7%) in 1980 to 270.71 km 2 (32.9%) in 2023. The results of modeling LST showed an increase in average LST for all land cover types, with the most significant increases evident within urban areas and Rangelands/Sparsely vegetated areas. The slightest increase in LST was within forested areas as the average LST increased from 28.42 °C in 1980 to 34.16 °C in 2023. The forecasts for the future showed a continuous increase in LST values in all land cover types. These findings highlight the impact of land surface dynamics and their impact on increasing land surface temperature, which urges the adoption of more sustainable planning policies for more livable and thermally comfortable cities.