Which daily equity returns improve output forecasts?

We document the improvements in short term forecasts of real output growth for the United States and the euro area from incorporating daily financial data and using mixed data sampling (MIDAS) regressions. Furthermore, we show that a significant share of forecast improvements are driven by information embedded in stock returns of large, capital-intensive firms. In comparison, labor-intensive firms contribute less to improvements in output forecasts within a MIDAS framework.

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Publication Details

Journal
Economics Letters
Published
2024-08-05
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111897
Citations
1
Primary Topic
Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.83
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article

Which daily equity returns improve output forecasts?

Mohammad R. Jahan-Pavar, William J. Lang
1 citations
Economics Letters
Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
0.83
article

Which daily equity returns improve output forecasts?

Mohammad R. Jahan-Pavar, William J. Lang
article en
1 citations

Abstract

We document the improvements in short term forecasts of real output growth for the United States and the euro area from incorporating daily financial data and using mixed data sampling (MIDAS) regressions. Furthermore, we show that a significant share of forecast improvements are driven by information embedded in stock returns of large, capital-intensive firms. In comparison, labor-intensive firms contribute less to improvements in output forecasts within a MIDAS framework.

Economics LettersVol. 243
Federal Reserve (US), Federal Reserve Board of Governors (US), New York University (US)
Decent work and economic growth
Openalex Percentile: Top 24%
Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
0.83
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Which daily equity returns improve output forecasts? — Mohammad R. Jahan-Pavar, William J. Lang · Economics Letters (2024) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS