Hakea decurrens invasion increases fire hazard at the landscape scale

Abstract Hakea decurrens subsp. physocarpa is an invasive fire-adapted shrub of Australian origin that is quickly expanding in Portugal with potential impacts on fire behavior and fire regime. In this study we examined the effects of H. decurrens on fire hazard by assessing fire behavior indicators at the landscape scale, using a modeling and simulation approach. Six fuel models for H. decurrens were developed through fuel characterization and experimental fires. The fuel models correspond to combinations of developmental stages of H. decurrens populations (Early, Intermediate and Mature) and management (Standing and Slashed fuels). These combinations were used with three levels of H. decurrens invasion, corresponding to 25%, 50% and 75% of cover of the landscape, applied to five real landscapes in northern Portugal (replicates) under three fuel moisture conditions (Low, Medium and High), used as surrogates of weather severity. Fire behavior simulations were conducted with FlamMap software. The relationships between fire behavior indicators (flame length, rate of spread and burn probability) at the landscape level and the four factors tested were analyzed using Generalized Linear Mixed Models. Standing fuels were found to be more hazardous than slashed fuels. Fire-hazard increased with H. decurrens stand maturity and slash, regardless of moisture conditions. The results of this study indicate that H. decurrens expansion might negatively affect the fire regime in the north of Portugal. Our findings add to other known negative impacts of the species on native ecosystems, calling for the need to reinforce its control.