Bubble Necessity Theorem

Asset price bubbles are situations where asset prices exceed the fundamental values defined by the present value of dividends. This paper presents a conceptually new perspective: the necessity of bubbles. We establish the bubble necessity theorem in a plausible general class of economic models: with faster long-run economic growth (G) than dividend growth (Gd) and counterfactual long-run autarky interest rate (R) below dividend growth, all equilibria are bubbly with nonnegligible bubble sizes relative to the economy. This bubble necessity condition naturally arises in economies with sufficiently strong savings motives and multiple factors or sectors with uneven productivity growth.

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Publication Details

Journal
Journal of Political Economy
Published
2024-08-05
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1086/732528
Citations
20
Primary Topic
Economic theories and models
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
20.33
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article

Bubble Necessity Theorem

Alexis Akira Toda, Tomohiro Hirano
20 citations
Journal of Political Economy
Economic theories and models
20.33
article

Bubble Necessity Theorem

Alexis Akira Toda, Tomohiro Hirano
article en
20 citations

Abstract

Asset price bubbles are situations where asset prices exceed the fundamental values defined by the present value of dividends. This paper presents a conceptually new perspective: the necessity of bubbles. We establish the bubble necessity theorem in a plausible general class of economic models: with faster long-run economic growth (G) than dividend growth (Gd) and counterfactual long-run autarky interest rate (R) below dividend growth, all equilibria are bubbly with nonnegligible bubble sizes relative to the economy. This bubble necessity condition naturally arises in economies with sufficiently strong savings motives and multiple factors or sectors with uneven productivity growth.

Journal of Political EconomyVol. 133(1)
Emory University (US), Royal Holloway University of London (GB)
Openalex Percentile: Top 1%
Economic theories and models
20.33
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