Relocation from China (with Chinese characteristics)

Rising global political tensions and increasing use of trade policies are popularly seen as potential threats to globalization. Will these factors lead to the ‘decoupling’ of affected economies, or reshape relations between trade partners in more complex ways? We consider this question by studying the recent evolution of the economic relationship between China and the US, in the context of a sharp fall in direct China-US trade. Using firm-level and product-level data, we show that Chinese manufacturing investment and Chinese-produced parts have increasingly flowed to third-country ‘winners’ who have simultaneously increased their US market share. This suggests that Chinese economic actors have continued to participate in reorganized China-US supply chains. We present evidence that our findings capture expanding indirect relationships linking China and the US rather than broader economic trends within the ‘winners’ themselves. • The share of Chinese goods in US imports has fallen sharply in recent years. • However, we find evidence of expanding indirect China-US economic relations. • ‘Winners’ of US import share have hosted more new Chinese manufacturing affiliates. • Chinese parts have increasingly flowed to ‘winners’ of downstream US market share. • Rising political tensions and activist trade policy might not imply ‘decoupling’.