Mitigating the effect of the population model uncertainty on the strong lensing Bayes factor using nonparametric methods

Strong lensing of gravitational waves can produce several detectable images as repeated events in the upcoming observing runs, which can be detected with the posterior overlap analysis (Bayes factor). The choice of the binary black hole population plays an important role in the analysis as two gravitational-wave events could be similar either because of lensing or astrophysical coincidence. In this study, we investigate the biases induced by different population models on the Bayes factor. We build up a mock catalog of gravitational-wave events following a benchmark population and reconstruct it using both nonparametric and parametric methods. Using these reconstructions, we compute the Bayes factor for lensed pair events by utilizing both models and compare the results with a benchmark model. We show that the use of a nonparametric population model gives a smaller bias than parametric population models. Therefore, our study demonstrates the importance of choosing a sufficiently agnostic population model for strong lensing analyses.

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Publication Details

Journal
Physical review. D/Physical review. D.
Published
2025-03-04
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1103/physrevd.111.063012
Citations
1
Primary Topic
Gaussian Processes and Bayesian Inference
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
2.48

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article

Mitigating the effect of the population model uncertainty on the strong lensing Bayes factor using nonparametric methods

S. Rinaldi, O. A. Hannuksela, Damon H. T. Cheung, Martina Toscani
1 citations
Physical review. D/Physical review. D.
Gaussian Processes and Bayesian Inference
2.48
article

Mitigating the effect of the population model uncertainty on the strong lensing Bayes factor using nonparametric methods

S. Rinaldi, O. A. Hannuksela, Damon H. T. Cheung, Martina Toscani
article en
1 citations

Abstract

Strong lensing of gravitational waves can produce several detectable images as repeated events in the upcoming observing runs, which can be detected with the posterior overlap analysis (Bayes factor). The choice of the binary black hole population plays an important role in the analysis as two gravitational-wave events could be similar either because of lensing or astrophysical coincidence. In this study, we investigate the biases induced by different population models on the Bayes factor. We build up a mock catalog of gravitational-wave events following a benchmark population and reconstruct it using both nonparametric and parametric methods. Using these reconstructions, we compute the Bayes factor for lensed pair events by utilizing both models and compare the results with a benchmark model. We show that the use of a nonparametric population model gives a smaller bias than parametric population models. Therefore, our study demonstrates the importance of choosing a sufficiently agnostic population model for strong lensing analyses.

Physical review. D/Physical review. D.Vol. 111(6)
University of Pisa (IT), Chinese University of Hong Kong (HK), University of Michigan (US), Institut National de Physique Nucléaire et de Physique des Particules (FR), Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Sezione di Milano Bicocca (IT), University of Milano-Bicocca (IT)
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Institut National de Physique Nucléaire et de Physique des Particules
Openalex Percentile: Top 12%
Gaussian Processes and Bayesian Inference
2.48
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Mitigating the effect of the population model uncertainty on the strong lensing Bayes factor using nonparametric methods — S. Rinaldi, O. A. Hannuksela, et al. · Physical review. D/Physical review. D. (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS