Cropland and population exposure to extreme precipitation events in Central Asia under future climate change

Central Asia (CA) is experiencing rapid warming and an intensifying hydrological cycle, with important implications for extreme precipitation events (EPEs). However, future changes in cropland and population exposure to EPEs remain insufficiently quantified in this climate-sensitive dryland region. Here, we projected changes in EPE characteristics and associated cropland and population exposure across CA using daily precipitation simulations from five bias-adjusted ISIMIP3b global climate models under SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. The historical period 1995–2014 was used as the reference, and future changes were assessed for 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100. The results show increasing extreme precipitation amount, frequency, intensity, and spatial extent toward the end of the century, particularly under SSP5-8.5 and in high-mountain regions. Under SSP5-8.5, cropland exposure increases by 46.4% from 2021 to 2040 to 2081–2100, with cumulative exposure of approximately 190.7 ± 73.7 million km 2 -days during 2021–2100. Under SSP3-7.0, population exposure increases by 97.2% between the first and last future periods, with cumulative exposure reaching approximately 47.12 ± 18.8 billion person-days during 2021–2100. Exposure hotspots are mainly located in northern Kazakhstan and the tri-border region of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan. Signed decomposition shows that climatic changes dominate most increases in cropland exposure, particularly under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, whereas the drivers of population exposure vary strongly among socioeconomic pathways, with demographic changes either reinforcing or offsetting climate-driven exposure changes. These findings highlight increasing exposure of Central Asian populations and croplands to future extreme precipitation and suggest the importance of strengthened flood management, agricultural drainage, early-warning systems, and climate-resilient land-use planning.