Run, graduate, run: Internationally mobile students’ reactions to changing political landscapes in Europe

Abstract Over the last decades, Europe has attracted an increasing number of internationally mobile students. The related influx of talent into European labour markets constituted an important factor in the knowledge economy. This research addresses the question of whether changing political landscapes in Europe, such as increasing support for right-wing parties, could translate into a diminishing attractiveness of European economies. To this end, international graduates’ staying behaviour in 27 European destination countries is compared based on bilateral stay rates for 144 countries of origin from 2009 to 2019. International graduates are found to display a notable sensitivity concerning the electorate’s preferences: If the potential median voter is located on the right of the political spectrum, the number of international graduates willing to stay declines by about one quarter. This effect is stronger in election years when voters’ political preferences become more salient. Further results suggest that international graduates are also more prone to leaving if the political centre erodes or one of the political fringes becomes too dominant. Eventually, this amounts to a considerable loss for European economies since international graduates have acquired destination country-specific human capital and are easily integrated into host societies.