Who Leads and Who Follows? Predicting Leadership Initiative and Success in Problem-Solving Groups

Research on leadership emergence has long sought to identify the individual characteristics that predict who comes to occupy leadership roles in groups. However, most studies treat leadership emergence as a single outcome, making it difficult to determine whether predictors influence the propensity to attempt leadership, the likelihood of attracting followers, or both. We conceptualize leadership emergence as a two-stage process consisting of leadership initiative (i.e., attempts to influence the group) and leadership success (i.e., the extent to which those attempts attract follower endorsement). This distinction provides a framework for integrating diverse theoretical perspectives on leadership emergence, as different predictors may influence different stages of this process. Across two laboratory studies (total N = 754), we assessed both components on a behavioral level and examined a range of predictors, including intelligence, personality traits, motivational dispositions, status-based cues, and testosterone. Results showed that only a small subset of attributes was associated with either component of leadership emergence. In the pooled sample, intelligence was the only predictor of both leadership initiative and leadership success, with no significant difference between the two studies. Extraversion and subjective competence predicted leadership initiative but not leadership success, which was additionally predicted by the frequency of leadership initiative. Taken together, our findings demonstrate how distinguishing leadership initiative from leadership success can clarify which individual attributes shape each stage of the leadership emergence process.