The children of HOPE VI demolitions: National evidence on labor market outcomes

• Study impact of Hope VI Demolition of Housing Projects using large, nationally representative sample. • Children of Hope VI Demolition Projects exhibit earnings gains as young adults. • Improved job accessibility is a key mechanism. • Effects are largest in large cities and for neighborhoods with highest poverty rates. We combine national administrative data on earnings and participation in subsidized housing to investigate how the demolition of 160 public housing projects—funded by the HOPE VI Demolition program—affected adult labor market outcomes for 18,500 children. Our empirical strategy compares children exposed to the program between ages 10 and 18 to children drawn from thousands of non-demolished projects, adjusting for observable differences using a flexible estimator that combines features of matching and regression. We find that children who resided in HOPE VI projects earn 15 percent more at age 26 relative to children in comparison projects. Earnings gains are greatest for demolitions in high-poverty neighborhoods in large cities, the context for most prior research on HOPE VI. However, most HOPE VI projects were in smaller cities where we find weaker effects that are not statistically significant. We investigate pathways including improved parental earnings, childhood exposure to lower poverty neighborhoods, and greater job accessibility. We find the strongest evidence for improved job accessibility facilitating increased employment and earnings for young adults.