Collapse reliability and lifetime prediction of deteriorating reinforced concrete framed structures

This paper presents a general approach to the probabilistic prediction of the lifetime of reinforced concrete frames with respect to structural collapse. The structural system is considered to be exposed to an aggressive environment and the effects of the structural damaging process are described by the corresponding evolution in time of the axial force-bending moment resistance domains. The collapse load is computed by means of limit analysis. Monte Carlo simulation is used to account for the randomness of the main structural parameters. In this way, both the time-variant probability of failure as well as the expected structural lifetime associated with a prescribed reliability level are evaluated. An application to the collapse reliability analysis and lifetime prediction of a reinforced concrete arch bridge is presented.