FINSKEN: a framework for developing consistent global change scenarios for Finland in the 21st century

This paper presents the rationale, methodology and results of the three-year FINSKEN project to develop global change scenarios for Finland in the 21st century. Scenario consistency was pursued by relating all scenarios to the same global driving factors of environmental change specified by the IPCC. Scenarios were constructed of socio-economic development, climate, sea level, surface ozone exposure, and sulphur and nitrogen deposition. Both empirical and modelling approaches were used to develop scenarios. Linkages between scenario types were examined to improve scenario integration. Stakeholder dialogue was encouraged through a questionnaire survey, two project seminars, and face-to-face interviews. Two types of future world are described: a consumer-driven \A-world\ and a community-minded \B-world\. In the A-world there is strong economic growth in Finland accompanied by rapid increases in CO2 concentration, increased ozone pollution and nitrogen deposition, rapid climate warming, increased precipitation and a possible reversal from falling to rising sea levels. The B-world shows lower economic growth than the A-world, and less rapid increases in CO2 concentration, temperature and precipitation. After initial increases, ozone pollution and deposition are unlikely to exceed present levels and will probably be much lower by the end of the century. Sea levels in southern Finland either stabilise or continue to fall.