Climate change projections for Finland during the 21st century

On the basis of fifteen global model simulations of future climate, using the SRES emissions scenarios for greenhouse gases and aerosols, we have constructed national-scale seasonal and annual climate change scenarios for Finland during the 21st century. In approximate terms, the annual mean temperature is projected to rise by 1–3 °C and the annual mean precipitation by 0%–15% by the 2020s, relative to the baseline period 1961–1990. The corresponding increases by the 2050s are 2–5 °C (temperature) and 0%–30% (precipitation), while by the 2080s they are 2–7 °C and 5%–40%, respectively. The projected temperature trends are markedly stronger than that observed during the 20th century. The ranges in the climate change projections reflect the uncertainties arising from differences in model formulation and in emissions scenarios but are, to some extent, affected by the internal variability of climate as well. Seasonally, the projected precipitation changes and their statistical significance are largest in winter and smallest in summer. On the other hand, the projected rather small summertime warming is at least as statistically significant as the larger warming in the other seasons. Based on a literature review, it seems very likely that changes in mean climate are associated with changes in climate extremes as well.