Possible effects of climate change on potato crops in Estonia

The main objective of this research is to generate and analyse values of meteorologically possible yields (MPY, maximum yield achievable under given meteorological conditions) of potato for the middle and the end of the 21st century, at three Estonian locations. An early and a late potato varieties are analysed as examples. Climate change is evaluated under four different emission scenarios by 18 different GCMs; resultant changes are introduced into a dynamical potato growth model POMOD. The climate-driven changes without considering the effect of CO 2 concentration change are determined. A negative impact of climate warming on early potato growth in Estonia is confirmed. Moderate climate change scenarios will have a positive influence on growth of the late potato variety, whereas stronger changes will cause the decline of agrometeorological resources. A more positive or less negative effect of climate change is detected for northern Estonia.