Reliability of vibration predictions in civil engineering applications

The reliability of vibration predictions distinguishes itself from other reliability problems because of the highly non-linear behavior of the underlying models. Over the last two years, a combination of four institutes in the Netherlands has studied the reliability in this type of predictions. For the sake of comparison, besides sophisticated computational prediction models, also simple empirical models and expert judgment was analyzed. The paper describes the experimental set-up and the results of the project. Conclusions are drawn about the reliability of the predictions and the reduction that may be achieved from an increase in model sophistication.