Predicting Paths of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Using Monthly Surface Pressure Data

Previous research has had some success in predicting likely tracks of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin using North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) anomalies (above or below average values) during preceding months. This paper expands on this research by incorporating other surface pressure values as independent variables as alluded to by some of the earliest NAO research. We examine monthly sea-level-pressure (SLP) data from Reykjavik (Iceland), Cape Hatteras (North Carolina), and Nassau (Bahamas), along with NAO index anomalies, to see if they can be used to predict future paths and landfall locations of Atlantic tropical cyclones during the period 1970–2005. Average SLP from Nassau during the preceding May and June shows the strongest correlations with tropical cyclone tracks, with increased values correlated with more cyclones impacting the southeastern United States, but fewer landfalls along the Gulf of Mexico. Results also show virtually no relationship between the storm variables tested and the NAO index.