Sulphur and nitrogen oxides emissions in Europe and deposition in Finland during the 21st century

This paper describes the development of European scenarios of sulphur and nitrogen oxide emissions and resulting depositions in Finland during the 21st century, based on the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. The work is a part of the FINSKEN project, which aimed at developing consistent long-term scenarios of global change for Finland. The derivation of emission scenarios for European countries and the calculation of environmental loading scenarios based on them presented in this paper is analogous to the estimation of future ground level ozone concentrations within FINSKEN. Global energy scenarios are reflected in changing emission quantities in Europe. Deposition scenarios up to the year 2100 are developed using European and regional deposition models. The impacts of alternative energy futures on emissions and regional air pollution are compared with the plausible impacts of climate change on the transformation and transportation of air pollution, based on the work in the European AIR-CLIM project. The long-term emission scenarios are developed taking into account the recent international emission reduction agreements within the UN/ECE and the EU. Comparisons between IPCC scenarios and European developments indicated that the fossil-intensive IPCC scenarios were pessimistic in their estimates for future sulphur and nitrogen oxides emissions for European regions. In the light of recent air pollution reduction legislation in Europe, increasing sulphur and nitrogen oxides deposition trends for Finland appear unlikely.